PrismML compressed Qwen3.8-27B to ternary weights and kept 98.2% of its benchmark average by its own measurement. The weights shrank nine times. The KV cache did not move, and the capability that degraded most is the one we build on.
Alibaba shipped a 27B model in August that scores 52 on the Artificial Analysis index against its predecessor's 38, with an identical network. What that means for running a capable model on one graphics card, and what it costs in memory and tokens.
The top four models on the Artificial Analysis index sit within four points of each other and vary threefold in cost per task. The cheapest of them is the one you can download. What changed in July was pricing power, not capability.
The hardware to hold a capable model got cheap, and the models got small enough to fit. What runs on the machines in your bedroom, and the two numbers that decide it.